When is someone surprised? The simple answer to this question is when they make a wrong guess about something. This world runs on the basis of guesses and assumptions. Making a correct guess usually saves a person from a big loss, while a wrong guess sometimes kills. Guesses are often made on the basis of deep information, but sometimes they are also made without information. The better the information about something, the better the guess can be made.
Even a superpower like America has been ruling the world on the basis of guesses until now. Its guesses are usually based on the information that it collects through its intelligence agencies, so most of its guesses have been correct. Whether it is to impose war on a country, start a coup somewhere, kidnap or kill someone’s ruler, the results have always been as expected.
Be it the invasion of Afghanistan after 9/11, the invasion of Iraq under the pretext of nuclear weapons, or the recent kidnapping of the President of Venezuela, America has achieved its desired results everywhere. It has not faced any resistance that would have been a bone in its neck. Perhaps, by making more accurate estimates, American intelligence agencies or political governments have become overconfident and now, without obtaining complete information, they have started making estimates that are leading to their defeat. For the first time, any estimate of America has turned out to be wrong.
The war against Iran that America had started with the idea has not yet yielded the results it had hoped for, but it has to be given. This is the reason why America has now come to the negotiating table and is also giving assurances of not going to war again. The American president also claims to have destroyed Iran’s air force, navy, and nuclear power, and also praises the current Iranian leadership. They also assure Iran that the issues will be resolved soon, they also criticize the Israeli president, they also make conciliatory threats to Iran in a subdued tone and they are seen trying unsuccessfully to prove to the world that they are peace-loving by calling themselves good people. The American president does not understand what to say and what not to say about this mistake in his assessment. Sometimes he says two completely contradictory things about Iran in one day, and sometimes he says two completely different things in the same breath. If he were a bud, perhaps he would have kept his lips closed due to such surprise and heartbreak, as in the verse of the poet Ada Jafari, “They are surprised, they are filled with joy, they are filled with joy,” but Donald Trump is the American president who has to speak at all times. Some are forced by habit and some by the need of their position, thinking that only by speaking will they be able to convince their countrymen of their wrong assumptions. Therefore, they keep saying something or the other, and their speech shows their mental confusion.
Now, look at how President Trump, after seeing millions of people crying at the funeral of the Iranian Supreme Leader who was martyred in the Israeli attack, made this statement that he was surprised to see the people crying for Khamenei, he thought the Iranians hated him. Trump’s statement clearly shows that he has been making all his assumptions and guesses about Iran based on the flawed information provided by his intelligence agencies while sitting in the White House. These intelligence agencies had probably convinced them a few months ago by showing them the “public” demonstrations of some ignorant people against inflation in Iran that the people in Iran do not like Ayatollah Ali Khamenei or his government and that if Iran is attacked, the people will rise up against them from within and thus we will be able to easily impose a government of our choice there. So Trump, the US government and their sidekick Israel fell into the madness of attacking Iran based on this delusion. They also considered Iran to be a country like Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon or Gaza that they would attack, destroy and ruin, kill people like insects, send their army there and occupy it and then calmly bring in a government of their choice. Even when talks were underway with Iran before the war started, they did not wait for it to be completed and one morning Israel attacked Iran like a mad dog. 168 boys and girls studying in a school in the Iranian city of Minab were martyred and with this attack, the American president came on TV and started a speech in favor of the Israeli attack in which he tried to convince the world that since the world is threatened by Iran’s nuclear weapons, we have carried out this attack to protect the world.
And then the world saw how American and Israeli arrogance was broken. Those who spoke of protecting the world from Iranian nuclear weapons, without nuclear weapons, destroyed half of Israel and the Middle East with Iranian missiles. Then America and Israel, who did not care about anyone, one of them, America, agreed to negotiate with Iran through the mediation of Pakistan as if it was waiting for someone to come and save our lives from Iran, while Israel has been a wet cat since then as if it does not exist anywhere. It is not stopping its mischief in Lebanon and Palestine, but it does not even dare to look at Iran.
The US and Israel’s miscalculations about Iran are now constantly surprising them. It is possible.The US and Israel’s miscalculations about Iran are now constantly surprising them. It is quite possible that this surprise will sooner or later turn into a problem for them.